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Showing posts with label Economist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economist. Show all posts

Friday, April 3, 2015

The Economist explains: Why golf is in decline in America




Golf traces its origins to 15th century Scotland but it was in America starting in the 1890s that it really came into its own. The country is by far the world’s biggest market for golf, home to about half its players and courses. Golf adds about $70 billion a year to America’s economy.

In 2006 some 30m Americans were golfers. But since then golf has hit a rough patch.

And it is now struggling to attract a new generation of American players.  In 2013, 160 of the country’s 14,600 golf facilities closed, the 8th consecutive year of net closures. The number of players has fallen to around 25m.

Why are fewer Americans playing golf? There are three main reasons.

First, golf’s calm pace may no longer fit in with modern lifestyles. It can take more than four hours to play a full round of 18 holes. And disappearing to the golf course for half the weekend is not compatible with modern attitudes to child-rearing.

Second, while golf may have managed to shake off some of its elitist image, America’s troubled economy is once more making it a pursuit of the wealthy. Middle and lower-income golfers have seen their pay packets shrink, hurting membership numbers at mid-range golf courses. Some public courses have been closed by local governments making spending cuts.  

Third, golf has become harder to play. Since the 1990s golf-course designers have taken to building longer, tougher courses in order to put golfers and their equipment to the test. The sport’s growing difficulty and its 200-page rulebook make it a tough sell to new players.

In the past stars have had the power to reignite interest in the game. Tiger Woods drew an unprecedented number of newcomers to the sport. But he fell from grace and no new star has emerged to take his place.

Instead, in a bid to renew golf’s appeal, faster, easier versions of the sport are being invented. Foot golf, a hybrid of football and golf and top golf, which involves hitting gold balls onto huge, coloured targets in outdoor sports bars, are two experiments.

Will they succeed in reviving the sports popularity? That, as a golfer would say, is a long shot.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Helicopter parents - Relax, your kids will be fine

Helicopter parents

Relax, your kids will be fine


IN 1693 the philosopher John Locke warned that children should not be given too much “unwholesome fruit” to eat. Three centuries later, misguided ideas about child-rearing are still rife. Many parents fret that their offspring will die unless ceaselessly watched. In America the law can be equally paranoid. In South Carolina this month Debra Harrell was jailed for letting her nine-year-old daughter play in a park unsupervised. The child, who had a mobile phone and had not been harmed in any way, was briefly taken into custody of the social services.

Ms Harrell’s draconian punishment reflects the rich world’s angst about parenting. By most objective measures, modern parents are far more conscientious than previous generations. Since 1965 labour-saving devices such as washing machines and ready meals have freed eight hours a week for the average American couple, but slightly more than all of that time has been swallowed up by childcare. Dads are far more hands-on than their fathers were, and working mothers spend more time nurturing their sprogs than the housewives of the 1960s did. This works for both sides: children need love and stimulation; and for the parents, reading to a child or playing ball games in the garden is more fulfilling than washing dishes.

There are two blots in this picture, connected to class. One is at the lower end. Even if poor parents spend more time with their children than they once did, they spend less than rich parents do—and they struggle to provide enough support, especially in the crucial early years (see article). America is a laggard here; its government spends abundantly on school-age kids but much less than other rich countries on the first two or three years of life. As this newspaper has pointed out before, if America did more to help poor parents with young children, it would yield huge returns.

The second problem, less easy to prove, occurs at the other end of the income scale, and may even apply to otherwise rational Economist readers: well-educated, rich parents try to do too much (see article). Safety is part of it: they fear that if they are not constantly vigilant their children may break their necks or eat a cupcake that has fallen on the floor. Over-coaching is another symptom. Parents fear that unless they drive their offspring to Mandarin classes, violin lessons and fencing practice six times a week, they will not get into the right university. The streets of Palo Alto and Chelsea are clogged with people-carriers hauling children from one educational event to another.

The fear about safety is the least rational. Despite the impression you get from watching crime dramas, children in rich countries are mind-bogglingly safe, so long as they look both ways before crossing the road. Kids in the 1950s—that golden era so often evoked by conservative politicians—were in fact five times likelier to die before the age of five. Yet their parents thought nothing of letting them roam free. In those days, most American children walked or biked to school; now barely 10% do, prevented by jittery parents. Children learn how to handle risks by taking a few, such as climbing trees or taking the train, even if that means scraped knees and seeing the occasional weirdo. Freedom is exhilarating. It also fosters self-reliance.

Get out of that helicopter
The other popular parental fear—that your children might not get into an Ivy League college—is more rational. Academic success matters more than ever before. But beyond a certain point, parenting makes less difference than many parents imagine. Studies in Minnesota and Sweden, for example, found that identical twins grew up equally intelligent whether they were raised together or apart. A study in Colorado found that children adopted and raised by brainy parents ended up no brainier than those adopted by average parents. Genes appear to matter more than upbringing in the jobs market, too. In a big study of Korean children adopted in America, those raised by the richest families grew up to earn no more than those adopted by the poorest families.
This does not mean that parenting is irrelevant. The families who adopt children are carefully screened, so they tend to be warm, capable and middle-class. But the twin and adoption studies indicate that any child given a loving home and adequate stimulation is likely to fulfil her potential. Put another way, better-off parents can afford to relax a bit. Your kids will be fine if you hover over them less and let them frolic in the sun from time to time. You may be happier, too, if you spend the extra time indulging your own hobbies—or sleeping. And if you are less stressed, your children will appreciate it, even if you still make them eat their fruit and vegetables.

Stressed parents - Cancel that violin class

Helicopter moms and dads will not harm their kids if they relax a bit




WELL-TO-DO parents fear two things: that their children will die in a freak accident, and that they will not get into Harvard. The first fear is wildly exaggerated. The second is not, but staying awake all night worrying about it will not help—and it will make you miserable.
Modern parents see risks that their own parents never considered. They put gates at the top of stairs, affix cushions to table corners and jam plastic guards into sockets to stop small fingers from getting electrocuted. Those guards are “potential choking hazards”, jests Lenore Skenazy, the author of “Free-Range Kids”. Ms Skenazy let her nine-year-old son ride the New York subway on his own. He was thrilled; but when she spoke about it on TV, a mob of worrywarts called her “America’s worst mom”.
Yet in fact American children are staggeringly safe. A kid under five in the 1950s was five times as likely to die (of disease, in an accident, etc) than the same kid today. The chance of a child being kidnapped and murdered by a stranger is a minuscule one in 1.5m.
What about academic success? Surely the possibility of getting into Harvard justifies any amount of driving junior from violin lesson to calculus tutor?
Bryan Caplan, an economist at George Mason University, says it does not. In “Selfish Reasons To Have More Kids”, he points to evidence that genes matter far more than parenting. A Minnesota study found that identical twins grow up to be similarly clever regardless of whether they are raised in the same household or in separate ones. Studies in Texas and Colorado found that children adopted by high-IQ families were no smarter than those adopted by average families. A Dutch study found that if you are smarter than 80% of the population, you should expect your identical twin raised in another home to be smarter than 76% but your adopted sibling to be average. Other twin and adopted studies find that genes have a huge influence on academic and financial success, while parenting has only a modest effect.
The crucial caveat is that adoptive parents have to pass stringent tests. So adoption studies typically compare nice middle-class homes with other nice middle-class homes; they tell you little about the effect of growing up in a poor or dysfunctional household.
The moral, for Mr Caplan, is that middle-class parents should relax a bit, cancel a violin class or two and let their kids play outside. “If your parenting style passes the laugh test, your kids will be fine,” he writes. He adds that if parents fretted less about each child, they might find it less daunting to have three instead of two. And that might make them happier in the long run. No 60-year-old ever wished for fewer grandchildren.
Does over-parenting hurt children? Probably not; but it exhausts parents. Hence the cascade of books with titles like “All Joy And No Fun” and “Go The F**k To Sleep”. Kids notice when their parents are overdoing it. Ellen Galinsky, a researcher, asked 1,000 kids what they would most like to change about their parents’ schedules. Few wanted more face time; the top wish was for mom and dad to be less tired and stressed.

Women in Saudi Arabia - Unshackling themselves

Saudi women are gaining ground, slowly





A RECENT move to introduce physical education to government girls’ schools met the same response as most attempts to give Saudi women equal rights with men. A group of conservatives protested in Riyadh, the capital, against “Westernising” moves that would lead to adultery and prostitution. Such mores, they argued, have no place in the birthplace of the Prophet Muhammad.
But sport looks set to become a fact of life for women in the kingdom. In 2012 two Saudi women took part in the Olympics for the first time, weathering a torrent of abuse. Since last year the authorities have been giving licences to private sports clubs for women, a far cry from 2006 when Lina al-Maeena had to register her ladies’ basketball team in Jeddah as a company. Even in stuffier Riyadh, girls can be seen kicking footballs with their brothers, the hems of their black abayas trailing in the dust.

Slowly the tide in Saudi Arabia appears to be running in women’s favour. “The Saudi woman’s voice has always been there calling for change,” says Hatoon al-Fassi, a prominent Saudi historian of women in Arabia. “But today it is more apparent and it is getting to the decision-makers.” Though lambasting the lack of equality between the sexes in the kingdom, Human Rights Watch, a New York-based lobby group, last year referred to “encouraging, modest” reforms for women.
Since taking power in 2005, King Abdullah, the ageing monarch, has given women a bigger role in public life. In 2009 Norah al-Faiz was appointed deputy minister for education, the highest post attained by a woman in government. Last year 30 women took their seats in the Shura Council, a consultative body of 150 members, also appointed by the king. And women are due for the first time to vote and stand in municipal elections—the only ones permitted in the kingdom—albeit that only half the seats are elected and that the councils are pretty toothless.
In the private arena changes are afoot, too. This year Somayya Jabarti became the first female editor of a daily newspaper, the Saudi Gazette. More women are working, including running their own businesses, though the female unemployment rate remains a lofty 32%. The first female-run law firm opened this year, after the authorities lifted a ban preventing women law graduates from practising.
And women are generally more visible, even on the streets of Riyadh, which lies in the heartland dominated by the influence of Wahhabists, who follow an ultra-conservative version of Islam. Since restrictions on women at work have been eased, they operate cash tills everywhere, from lingerie shops to IKEA, a Swedish-founded furniture shop. They take taxis alone and head to the increasing number of facilities dedicated to women, from spas to separate floors of shopping malls.
Women are speaking up, too. Princess Reema bint Bandar al-Saud, a great-granddaughter of the founding king, runs a franchise of Harvey Nichols in Riyadh—and led a team of women to the base camp of Mount Everest to raise awareness of breast cancer. Women have written the most acclaimed Saudi novel of recent years, “Girls of Riyadh”, and directed the first feature film made in the country, “Wadjda”, about a girl in Riyadh who dreams of owning a bicycle to race against a neighbouring boy.
Across the board, Saudi women are pushing for changes to laws in a country where sharialaw is imposed by all-male courts. Last year human-rights groups hailed new legislation to criminalise domestic violence, though who is in charge of enforcing it remains unclear. From 2020 identity cards will be mandatory rather than optional for women, who until 2001 were required simply to be listed on their male guardian’s card.
Dainty steps at a time
There is still a long way to go. The guardianship rule—under which women must get permission from their husband, father or, less commonly, brother or son, to travel, work or get medical treatment—remains in place, in effect treating half the adult population as minors. Yet women can be held criminally responsible.
“Until [the guardianship rule] goes, all the changes are just a show for outside,” says Aziza Yousef, a professor at Riyadh’s King Saud University. By not tackling the issues head on, some argue that Saudi Arabia is institutionalising segregation, whereby women are still not allowed to be alone with unrelated men in public. Banks have “ladies branches”. Education is single-sex from kindergarten through to doctorates; King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 80km (50 miles) north of Jeddah, is the sole exception. Even shopping for clothes, women suffer innumerable annoyances. If, for example, they want to try on a garment, they generally have to do so in a toilet, since male-manned shops do not offer changing rooms.
For every step forward, the kingdom appears to take one back. Last month the local media reported that a woman had been sentenced to 150 lashes and eight months in jail for the crime of driving a car. The kingdom still ranks 127th of 136 in the UN’s gender-gap index.
There is no sign of any rethinking of the Wahhabists’ interpretation of Islam and their grip on Saudi morals. The religious establishment, on which the House of Saud relies to sustain its autocratic rule, has embalmed many tribal customs as Islamic and enforces strict interpretations of the religion which are not shared by Muslims in other countries, nor indeed by many in Saudi Arabia.
Instead, change is coming in other ways. One is social media. Newspaper columnists such as Ms al-Fassi and Samar Fatany, a veteran journalist, have been joined by many others online. Eman al-Nafjan runs Saudiwoman’s Weblog, which tackles an array of women’s issues. Twitter is full of campaigns for (and against) women’s rights. Ms Yousef uploaded videos to YouTube of herself driving. Serene al-Feteih, a freelance writer and photographer, is just about to launch a chat show in which she and two other women will debate matters seldom aired before, from contentious aspects of divorce to why Islam permits one man to have four wives.
Clever clogs
Education is forging change, too. More women than men are now in higher education; women-only universities are popping up everywhere. At least 150,000 Saudi students, a large minority of them women, many of them without a chaperone, are studying abroad. “The young generation is being exposed to other cultures and ways of doing things,” says Haifa Jamal al-Lail, president of Effat University, a private college for women in Jeddah and the first to offer engineering courses to women.
More than anything, change is coming through economics. “Fewer men are happy to come home to their wife with her feet up,” says Khalid al-Khudair, founder of Glowork, a company that runs a website to connect women and employers. “And then they will get annoyed at having to drive her everywhere.” In a branch of a lingerie chain, Nayomi, one of the shops that must now have female staff only, four newly hired women discuss their jobs. “The attitudes of families and men are changing,” says Areej Yaseen. A colleague disagrees: “My father allows me to work only because we need the money,” she says.
Fatwas, such as one issued by Sheikh Saleh bin Saad al-Luhayan asserting that women would damage their ovaries if they were to drive a car, are the least of the obstacles. A range of other Saudis also resist change. The government is nervous of giving more power to any ordinary people, women included. Many in the clergy think likewise. Some men argue for change, but more simply want to keep women down. And many women themselves resist emancipation. A rare government poll (admittedly, back in 2006) found that 86% of women thought they should not work in a mixed environment; and 89% thought they should not be allowed to drive.
“The first women we got jobs for in a supermarket in Riyadh last year had to be sacked after a week—thanks to the public outcry,” says Mr Khudair. “But soon people got used to the idea.” His company finds jobs for women in call-centres, at home and part-time. And attitudes and practices shift naturally. When companies first employed women, they had separate buildings, entrances and areas to work. Now in many offices men and women mingle. “The law is unclear,” says a male businessman. “We take advantage of that.” Sahal Yaseen, an imam and family counsellor in Jeddah, says divorce is becoming more frequent as women become more assertive and aware of their rights.
Women disagree over how best to win more reforms, though most agree it is still happening too slowly. “Change is most likely to come by working within the system,” says Hoda Abdulrahman al-Helaissi, a Shura Council member. Those sharing her view argue that provocative gestures, such as driving, cause a backlash. They point to places such as Switzerland, where women got the vote only in 1971. “Change is happening rapidly here,” says Ms Helaissi. “It’s just several decades behind.”
Others argue that the country’s old and out-of-touch rulers need to move much faster. “No society changed without laws mandating it from the top,” says Ms Yousef. “People need pushing,” agrees Khaled al-Maeena, a veteran journalist who groomed Ms Jabarti for the editorship of the Saudi Gazette.
Where most Saudi women appear to agree is that their ultimate goal is not to copy Western women. Despite the globalising ways influencing the kingdom, they tend to see their identity as inextricably bound to their country’s as the home of Islam. Most want to abide by the Koran’s description of their role. Many agree that they should dress modestly. Others accept that a woman should ask her husband for permission to travel. Indeed, what Islam really says about women is still, in Saudi Arabia, waiting for a proper debate. Until that happens, change will continue. But slowly.

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Japanese women and work: Holding back half the nation

Women’s lowly status in the Japanese workplace has barely improved in decades, and the country suffers as a result. Shinzo Abe would like to change that

Mar 29th 2014 | TOKYO


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KAREN KAWABATA represents the best of Japan’s intellectual capital. She has just graduated from the University of Tokyo, the most prestigious in the country. Wry and poised, with an American mother and Japanese father, she has the languages and cosmopolitan attitude that Japanese companies particularly value nowadays. In April she will join McKinsey, a consultancy that should give her immediate membership of a globe-trotting elite.

Yet Ms Kawabata sees obstacles in her path. She is acutely aware of the difficulties she would face at traditional Japanese companies, should she find herself joining one. Ferociously long working hours, often stretching past midnight, are followed by sessions of “nominication”, a play on the Japanese word for drinking, nomu, and the English word “communication”; these are where young hopefuls forge connections and build reputations. Nowadays women trying to impress the boss are allowed to drink plum wine mixed with plenty of soda instead of beer, says Ms Kawabata. But that is hardly a great improvement.

Above all, she worries that having a family will be nigh on impossible to combine with a demanding career. When she met her boyfriend’s father for the first time this year, she reassured him about her intentions at McKinsey. “I told him that I would rethink my career in a few years’ time,” she says.

That one of the brightest of Japan’s graduates needs to say such things should worry Shinzo Abe, the prime minister. Japan educates its women to a higher level than nearly anywhere else in the world: its girls come near the top in education league-tables compiled by the OECD. But when they leave university their potential is often squandered, as far as the economy is concerned. Female participation in the labour force is 63%, far lower than in other rich countries. When women have their first child, 70% of them stop working for a decade or more, compared with just 30% in America. Quite a lot of those 70% are gone for good.

Beyond the Festival of the Dolls
Mr Abe says he wants to change that. In April 2013 he announced that allowing women to “shine” in the economy was the most important part of his “Abenomics” growth strategy. Raising female labour participation to the level of men’s could add 8m people to Japan’s shrinking workforce, potentially increasing GDP by as much as 15%, according to Goldman Sachs, an investment bank. More women working for more pay would also increase demand. Hence speeches from Mr Abe attaching new-found importance to matters such as the opening hours of kindergartens and the challenges of breast-feeding outside the home.

For the prime minister, who belongs to the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), this is quite a turnaround. In 2005, when a previous government was taking steps towards greater equality, Mr Abe and his fellow conservatives warned of the damage to family values and to Japanese culture that could result if men and women were treated equally. They worried that rituals such as the hina matsuri, or Festival of Dolls, an annual celebration of young girls and the state of matrimony, could be endangered. Their concern was not just based on tradition; keeping women out of the workforce, conservatives thought, made economic sense too. If the country’s “baby-making machines”, as a former LDP health minister put it, stayed at home then they would produce more babies, and thus more workers.

This insight proved to be flawed. As the LDP encouraged women to stay at home, the fertility rate, already low, plunged further, bottoming out at 1.26 children per woman in 2005 before edging up to 1.41 in 2012. The consequent dearth of young people means that Japan’s working-age population is expected to fall by 40% by 2050, exerting a powerful drag on the economy. As a solution to this, the direct measure of getting more women out into the workforce would have great advantages over the indirect tactic of encouraging them to stay at home in the unfounded hope that they will breed instead.

Indeed, it may even turn out that working and having children go hand in hand. In other rich countries, higher birth rates nearly always accompany higher female employment, and in Japan itself the birth rate is higher in the countryside, where more women work, than in the big cities, where fewer do. The changes that might encourage more urban women into work—such as better child-care provision, and a less demanding corporate culture, which would mean shorter working hours for men and women alike—might encourage them and their husbands to have more children, too.

The missing salarywoman
Mr Abe’s interest in all this is new; the problem is not. Yoko Kamikawa, an LDP politician, recently served on the party’s new committee seeking to improve the lot of women. In the 2000s, during Mr Abe’s first term as prime minister, she was his minister of gender equality. She is startled, she says, by the lack of progress since then.

In most countries women’s participation in the labour force dips around the years when they marry and bear children; after that it recovers. But this M-shaped curve is much more pronounced in Japan than in most other rich countries (see chart 1). Japan’s curve has levelled out somewhat in recent years: in 2004 the rate of full- and part-time employment for 30- to 34-year-old women was 61%, a figure which by 2012 had risen to 69%. Yet young, married mothers are still largely absent from the workforce, and many women returning to work go into part-time or temporary jobs with low pay and little security.

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Those who stay in work often do so in jobs that waste their abilities. Few women hold professional, technical or managerial roles. In 2012 they made up 77% of Japan’s part-time and temporary workforce. Many of these workers are well-off married women seeking a little extra income. But others are poor and marginalised. The precarious existence of such workers was described in “Out”, a bestselling 1997 crime novel by Natsuo Kirino which had a resonance, and earned acclaim, beyond the borders of the genre. The heroine, who spends her nights toiling in a soulless packed-lunch factory, helps conceal the murder of a colleague’s no-good husband. Ms Kirino’s subsequent bestsellers have also focused on the division of gender roles, describing men slaving away in the corporate world, disconnected from women in the home.

At the very top of corporate Japan, the “bamboo ceiling”—so-called by women for being thick, hard and not even transparent—is starting to let in some chinks of light, but they are few and far between. In 2011, 4.5% of company division heads were female, up from 1.2% in 1989. But relative to other countries the numbers are still dismal. Of the most senior, executive-committee-level managers in Japan, 1% were women in 2011, according to a regional study by McKinsey. The equivalent figure for China was 9%, for Singapore 15%.

Corporate culture is by far the biggest obstacle for Japanese women. The practice of hiring graduates fresh out of university and employing them for their entire working lives makes it difficult for employees to take career breaks and seek new positions elsewhere afterwards. Promotion tends to be based on tenure and overtime, rather than on productivity and performance. And straightforward discrimination remains rampant. In a study that compared the reasons why Japanese and American college graduates leave their jobs, American women cited child care and looking after elderly relations as the main factors. Japanese women blamed dissatisfaction with their jobs and a feeling of being put into “dead-end” roles. The fact that their husbands, who spend more time at work than their counterparts in other developed countries, spend less time on child care or household chores, adds to the perceived need to stay at home (see chart 2).

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When Japanese firms take their pick of university graduates they choose men and women, but they still prefer men for management, sticking most of the women on the “clerical” track. Foreign companies have been able to take advantage of this prejudice by hiring and promoting able female graduates, says Georges Desvaux, the head of McKinsey’s Tokyo office, who also leads the firm’s global research on the role of women in companies. Overseas executives inside large Japanese companies tell tales of über-secretaries with the talent to run the whole business.

Keidanren, Japan’s most powerful business lobby, has been markedly uninterested in doing much about this. Though government pressure recently got the lobby to start internal discussions on promoting women, corporate leaders regard Mr Abe’s new enthusiasm for improving the lot of women in the same way as they look on reforms to corporate governance: as costly distractions from the task of lifting Japan Inc’s profits. Keidanren refuses to ask its members even to state the number of women on their boards, in fear of being asked to increase it, or having quotas imposed. Bureaucrats seeking to find the number scan documents for the suffix “ko”, usually found on female names.

Male dominance extends beyond the corporate world: in politics, too, women are grossly under-represented. In the lower house of the Diet, women hold only 8% of seats, with 19% in the upper house. In a global survey of women in parliaments, Japan ranked 123rd out of 189 countries. The older generation of men is particularly traditionalist, and still wields the most clout.

Pampered wife, wise choice
Yet women are not simply being held back by the patriarchy. When the choice is between leisurely dependency in the home—known as sanshoku hirune tsuki (“three meals and a nap”)—and the sorry life of a salaryman there is something to be said for putting your feet up. In wealthy places like Tokyo many women simply do not wish to work, says Takeshi Niinami, chief executive of Lawson, a chain of convenience stores.

Mariko Bando, author of “The Dignity of a Woman”, a bestselling guide for women on how to succeed in the workplace, points out that many Japanese women do not feel they need a high-status job to enjoy high status. A well-educated woman working part-time in a supermarket will not see that job as defining her identity if she is the wife of, say, a high-ranking Mitsubishi Corporation executive.

Remarkably, women seem to have become more conservative about work in the past few years. In 1979, 70% of women agreed with the statement that “The husband should be the breadwinner and the wife should take care of the home”. By 2004 that had fallen to 41%. But in 2012, perhaps because of the recession in 2007-09, just over half said they preferred to stay at home. A survey last year showed that a third of very young women want to become full-time housewives. Potential husbands, meanwhile, were less traditionalist: only one in five young men said he wanted his future wife to stay in the home.

Feminism has remained a timid force in Japan. The long economic boom that began in the 1950s was a national priority which left little room for questioning traditional roles in the home or workplace, says Chizuko Ueno, Japan’s best-known feminist. And women are not without power behind the scenes. Housewives control the family finances, and in the workplace so-called “office ladies” wield a lot of influence over the lives of salarymen, quietly hindering the careers of those they dislike.

There are, however, some indications that the role of women could change. For one thing, the boom that overrode all other interests is long gone. Stagnating wages mean the three-meals-and-a-nap way of life is less widely available, with households increasingly in need of two incomes. And the divorce rate is rising. More Japanese women are opting out of marriages to overworked and largely absent salarymen, and so thus increasingly need to fend for themselves. Although a portion of young women want old-fashioned gender roles, the rest, including the “parasite singles” who prefer living with their parents to marriage, want change.

Herbivore men, carnivore women
Some of the most motivated graduates nowadays are female, and a growing number of companies are waking up to the possibility of putting them to better use than in the past. According to Sakie Fukushima, a director of another business lobby, Keizai Doyukai, human-resources executives say in private that they would hire young women ahead of men most of the time. Yet they are afraid that they will lose them when they have children. Japan’s female 20-somethings now tend to be far more internationally minded than their male equivalents, says Lawson’s Mr Niinami. They outperform soshoku danshi, or “herbivore” men, so-called for taking low-responsibility jobs and preferring shopping to sex. These same young men have little desire to follow the breadwinner/housewife model adopted by their parents. Indeed, Japanese media have recently, with some surprise, begun to note a trend towards young fathers taking on more child care.

In some corners of corporate Japan, firms are changing the old working practices. At DeNA, an internet-services company, employees have noticed that their colleagues in California never stay late at the office, instead continuing their work at home. They are now starting to follow the American example, says the company’s founder, Tomoko Namba. A few firms are trying to increase productivity while shortening hours. Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation, a leading blue-chip, is discouraging workers from staying in the office after seven o’clock.

By 2020 Mr Abe wants women to occupy 30% of all “leadership” positions—which would include members of parliament, heads of local government and corporate executives. His most practical step has been to try to shorten waiting lists for child care by allowing more private companies into a previously state-dominated sector. Here he has seized upon the work of Fumiko Hayashi, the mayor of Yokohama, who after being elected in 2009 managed to reduce the city’s child-care waiting list, then the longest in the country, to zero in just over three years. A former senior saleswoman at Honda, BMW and Nissan, she brought private firms into the sector. Mr Abe wants to expand her “Yokohama method” across the country.

Yet many Japanese women, who are particularly protective of their children, distrust day care (one reason women in the countryside have more children is that they are more likely to have parents nearby to lend a hand). What is required, more people now argue, is an army of foreign nannies. In January, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Abe suggested Japan’s immigration rules could be eased so that foreign workers could help care for children and elderly relatives, another duty that falls most heavily on women. There have been unconfirmed media reports that the government is considering allowing in as many as 200,000 foreigners a year to work in areas such as construction, child care and nursing.

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As with much of the country’s ambitious programme of structural reform, however, such a loosening will face high political hurdles. Immigration is unpopular with the Japanese public; insiders note that Mr Abe may say such things in Switzerland, but has not given public voice to them in Japan.

Until overseas talk is followed by domestic action, many will think Mr Abe lacks the will to push for changes that would greatly improve the life of working women. His actions so far have not impressed. A request that firms allow mothers to take three years of maternity leave—compared with the 18 months they can take now—met with derision from all sides. Companies said it would cripple them; feminist critics said that it was part of the old agenda to keep women in the home. The target of 30% women in leadership roles by 2020 was first proposed in 2003 by then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. “The target is an old one, and it was not implemented,” says Yuriko Koike, head of public relations for the LDP and a former defence minister. The deadline arrives in only six years; there is little chance it will be met. The idea of reducing waiting lists for child care, too, dates back to Mr Koizumi’s time in office.
Some of Mr Abe’s allies frequently remind voters of the prime minister’s former traditional views on the family. In January Michiko Hasegawa, whom Mr Abe had approved as a board member at NHK, Japan’s national broadcaster, published a column saying that women’s most important task was to bring up their children, and that this should take priority over working outside the home. “The message on women is somewhat mixed,” concludes Ms Koike.

If the government really wants to increase female employment, argues Kathy Matsui of Goldman Sachs, it could do so by axing tax rules that keep women’s earnings low. The “head of household”, normally a man, is allowed to claim a tax deduction of ¥380,000 ($3,700) as long as his spouse’s income does not exceed ¥1.03m. The pension system, too, encourages limited earnings. As long as a wife’s annual wages remain under ¥1.3m she can claim the national pension without paying any premiums. Tackling such privileges, however, could cost the LDP the votes of millions of housewives and their husbands.

At a private dinner in Davos Mr Abe listened to a small group of senior women, including a former head of state, discuss what Japan should do differently. An awkward moment came when one of the guests, Miki Tsusaka, a partner at the Boston Consulting Group, told him she had dreaded returning to Japan after a successful career spent mostly in New York. Yet increasingly, behind their soft tones and feminine demeanour, many Japanese women are getting ready to break out of their dolls’ house. If the country’s policymakers can find the right ways to help them, those women could boost the economy and reform corporate culture. Both they and their sararimen stand greatly to benefit.

New roles for technology: Rise of the robots

Prepare for a robot invasion. It will change the way people think about technology

Mar 29th 2014


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ROBOTS came into the world as a literary device whereby the writers and film-makers of the early 20th century could explore their hopes and fears about technology, as the era of the automobile, telephone and aeroplane picked up its reckless jazz-age speed. From Fritz Lang’s “Metropolis” and Isaac Asimov’s “I, Robot” to “WALL-E” and the “Terminator” films, and in countless iterations in between, they have succeeded admirably in their task.

Since moving from the page and screen to real life, robots have been a mild disappointment. They do some things that humans cannot do themselves, like exploring Mars, and a host of things people do not much want to do, like dealing with unexploded bombs or vacuuming floors (there are around 10m robot vacuum cleaners wandering the carpets of the world). And they are very useful in bits of manufacturing. But reliable robots—especially ones required to work beyond the safety cages of a factory floor—have proved hard to make, and robots are still pretty stupid. So although they fascinate people, they have not yet made much of a mark on the world.

That seems about to change. The exponential growth in the power of silicon chips, digital sensors and high-bandwidth communications improves robots just as it improves all sorts of other products. And, as our special report this week explains, three other factors are at play.
One is that robotics R&D is getting easier. New shared standards make good ideas easily portable from one robot platform to another. And accumulated know-how means that building such platforms is getting a lot cheaper. A robot like Rethink Robotics’s Baxter, with two arms and a remarkably easy, intuitive programming interface, would have been barely conceivable ten years ago. Now you can buy one for $25,000.

C3 IPO

A second factor is investment. The biggest robot news of 2013 was that Google bought eight promising robot startups. Rich and well led (by Andy Rubin, who masterminded the Android operating system) and with access to world-beating expertise in cloud computing and artificial intelligence, both highly relevant, Google’s robot programme promises the possibility of something spectacular—though no one outside the company knows what that might be. Amazon, too, is betting on robots, both to automate its warehouses and, more speculatively, to make deliveries by drone. In South Korea and elsewhere companies are moving robot technology to new areas of manufacturing, and eyeing services. Venture capitalists see a much better chance of a profitable exit from a robotics startup than they used to.

The third factor is imagination. In the past few years, clever companies have seen ways to make robots work as grips and gaffers on film sets (“Gravity” could not have been shot without robots moving the cameras and lights) and panel installers at solar-power plants. More people will grasp how a robotic attribute such as high precision or fast reactions or independent locomotion can be integrated into a profitable business; eventually some of them will build mass markets. Aerial robots—drones—may be in the vanguard here. They will let farmers tend their crops in new ways, give citizens, journalists and broadcasters new perspectives on events big and small (see article), monitor traffic and fires, look for infrastructure in need of repair and much more besides.

As consumers and citizens, people will benefit greatly from the rise of the robots. Whether they will as workers is less clear, for the robots’ growing competence may make some human labour redundant. Aetheon’s Tugs, for instance, which take hospital trolleys where they are needed, are ready to take over much of the work that porters do today. Kiva’s warehouse robots make it possible for Amazon to send out more parcels with fewer workers. Driverless cars could displace the millions of people employed behind the wheel today. Just as employment in agriculture, which used to provide almost all the jobs in the pre-modern era, now accounts for only 2% of rich-world employment so jobs in today’s manufacturing and services industries may be forced to retreat before the march of the robots. Whether humanity will find new ways of using its labour, or the future will be given over to forced leisure, is a matter of much worried debate among economists. Either way, robots will probably get the credit or blame.

Invisible and otherwise

Robotic prowess will to some extent be taken for granted. It will be in the nature of cars to drive themselves, of floors to be clean and of supplies to move around hospitals and offices; the robotic underpinning of such things will be invisible. But robots will not just animate the inanimate environment. They will inhabit it alongside their masters, fulfilling all sorts of needs. Some, like Baxter, will help make and move things, some will provide care, some just comfort or companionship. A Japanese robot resembling a baby seal, which responds amiably to stroking and can distinguish voices, seems to help elderly patients with dementia.

The more visible robots are, the better they can help humanity discuss questions like those first posed in fiction. Is it necessary that wars always be fought by people who can feel pity and offer clemency, and yet who can also be cruel beyond all tactical requirements? (Already America is arguing about whether drone pilots deserve medals—see article.) Does it matter if the last kindnesses a person feels are from a machine? What dignifies human endeavour if the labour of most, or all, humans becomes surplus to requirements?

People, companies and governments find it hard to discuss the ultimate goals of technological change in the abstract. The great insight of Asimov et al was that it is easier to ask such questions when the technology is personified: when you can look it in the face. Like spacefarers gazing back at the home planet, robots can serve not just as workers and partners, but as purveyors of new perspectives—not least when the people looking at them see the robots looking back, as they one day will, with something approaching understanding.